Active critic of mine emailed me recently wondering if my strategy and that of other immigrant rights advocates was to defeat President Obama by blaming him relentlessly for the lack of progress on immigration reform and/or urge Latinos not to vote in 2012. Did I want President Obama to be a one-term president, he asked. Did I think a Republican would do any better on behalf of immigrants?
There is no way to sugar coat it. President Obama has failed miserably in his promise to update our flawed immigration system. But as much as our community's grief pushes me to detest, denounce, and defy this administration's terror-inducing immigration policies, I do not for a minute think that getting rid of President Obama or withholding my vote next November will do my family, the community, or the nation any good whatsoever.
The question is not whether I will vote in 2012. The question is how to make my vote count. How do immigrants and Latinos flex their voting muscle to effectively remind our national elected leaders, whoever they may be, that we cannot be taken for granted, especially when it comes to solving a deeply-emotional and personal issue like immigration reform?
Many of us will remember the highly-publicized and often replayed immigration reform promises then candidate-Obama made to Latinos and immigrants at key constituent gatherings, including NCLR's national conference. There were no embarrassing pauses or caveats, or much blaming of the opposing party for that matter, in his speeches as he pointedly chastised a system that blindly separates mothers from their babies. Latino voters were enthralled by the empathy and compassion of his words and gave him our vote by the millions.
For two years in a row, address after address, President Obama held steadfast in his expressed commitment to change the dangerously broken immigration system. He told small groups and large groups alike, elected officials and celebrities, advocates and community members that he was personally committed and engaged in finding a solution. All we were missing, the president would often say, is one or two courageous Republicans. He rarely, if ever, talked about the non-courageous Democrats in Congress that were committed to block any attempt by the White House to pass any type of immigration reform legislation.
There was something else missing from the president's usual words of encouragement on immigration reform: the Obama administration's deportation machine was moving full speed ahead all the while we held out hope for our dose of change to come. For two years the president offered various explanations as to why immigration reform would not happen. He did not, however, have the courage to explain why he felt compelled to tear apart close to a million families and exponentially expand toxic monsters like the "Secure Communities" program.
Democratic pollsters counter that it will be hard for Republicans to campaign on the economy when Republican hopefuls are calling for deeper cuts in social programs that most Hispanics want to preserve. In addition, immigration plays a big role in Hispanics’ voting decisions, they say.
“Immigration is an emotional issue,” Democratic pollster Sergio Bendixen told me. “It indicates to us which candidate likes us, and which one doesn’t.”
Several Republican Party leaders, including former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and former Secretary of Commerce Carlos Gutierrez, have recently launched a Hispanic Leadership Network to woo Latinos to the Republican Party. Last week, I asked Gutierrez how his party can improve its standing among Latinos with its current anti-immigration, anti-social programs rhetoric.
Gutierrez, who supports former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the Republican front-runner, and considers his candidate to be a “pragmatist,” conceded that Republicans will have a hard time winning with any candidate who Hispanics perceive as hostile to them.
“The Republican nominee will have to be someone who is a moderate,” Gutierrez told me. “We have to embrace immigration: If we are the party of prosperity, we have to be the party of immigration.”
My opinion: Republicans have a big problem with Hispanics. Granted, Obama is facing an economic slowdown that affects Hispanics more than most other Americans, and he has failed to meet his campaign promise to pass a comprehensive immigration reform that could benefit millions of Latinos.
In addition, the Obama administration has deported nearly 1 million undocumented immigrants over the past three years — more than Bush in his eight years in office. But Republicans won’t be able to criticize Obama on any of these counts, because their presidential hopefuls are calling for deeper budget cuts without new taxes on the rich, and come across as supporting the massive deportation of all undocumented immigrants.
Barring a shift to the center that would help Republicans win more Hispanic votes, or a worse-than-expected U.S. economic downturn that would drive Latino voters to stay at home on election day rather than voting for the president, Obama will be reelected in 2012.
Leadup to the Republican presidential nominating season got interesting Saturday, as one key player announced his candidacy and another dropped out of the race following a test vote of Iowans.
The results of Saturday's straw poll provide the first hint of what Iowans think of the field of Republicans competing for the chance to challenge President Barack Obama in 2012.
Just prior to the vote, Texas Governor Rick Perry announced he was joining the 2012 Republican race for president. A staunch conservative beloved by the tea party movement, Perry took time in his speech to critique Barack Obama's handling of the economy, and announced : "A renewed nation needs a new president."
Minnesota congresswoman and tea party favourite Michele Bachmann also had an impressive day, winning the test vote with more than 28 per cent of the 17,000 votes cast.
MITT ROMNEY
Romney, who lost the nomination to John McCain in 2008, has been viewed as the early front-runner, topping recent polls of potential Republican candidates by an average of about 5 percentage points, according to the website Real Clear Politics.
He also leads the Republican money race, raising $18.25 million in the second quarter for 2011, more than four times as much as any other contender.
Romney co-founded private equity firm Bain Capital and has pushed his business experience as a way to attack Obama's handling of the struggling U.S. economy. Critics say he was a corporate raider who cut jobs.
He is also known for righting the scandal-plagued 2002 Salt Lake City Olympics and a fortune estimated at $250 million.
MICHELE BACHMANN
A leader of the Tea Party movement, Bachmann joined the upper tier of candidates after a strong performance in the first major Republican debate on June 13 in New Hampshire.
A former tax lawyer, Bachmann became the first Republican woman elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from Minnesota in 2006.
A fiscal, social and religious conservative, Bachmann could benefit if former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin decided not to run, because the two are similar in politics and appeal to many of the same voters.
RICK PERRY
The three-term Texas governor was second in most polls even before announcing that he would enter the race. He is seen as a candidate who could bridge divides within the party because he is known for promoting job growth and staunch religious conservatism, and is popular within the Tea Party movement.
Perry would have the advantage of being the field's only governor from the South, a powerful party stronghold. Known for his fund-raising acumen, he would also have strong support from within Texas, home to many wealthy Republican donors.
One challenge is the prospect of comparison with another Republican Texas governor known for wearing cowboy boots: former President George W. Bush. Bush's lasting unpopularity could pose a hurdle in a general election.
JON HUNTSMAN
He annoyed the White House by resigning in April as Obama's ambassador to China to consider whether to seek the Republican presidential nomination.
Like Romney, Huntsman is a Mormon. The former governor of Utah and member of a wealthy chemicals family is a moderate, which may make it hard for him to win over conservatives who play a big role in the nominating process.
Huntsman's name recognition is low and his biggest immediate hurdle among Republican voters is his service to the Obama administration. He lags far behind in opinion polls.
SARAH PALIN
Palin, the party's vice presidential nominee in 2008, has not said whether she will run but told an interviewer that she expects to make a decision in August or September.
She has star power and can afford to enter the race relatively late because of her broad name recognition.
Palin made herself a millionaire with two books, the TV show "Sarah Palin's Alaska" and paid speaking engagements.
A leading voice in the conservative Tea Party movement, Palin enhanced her influence by campaigning for its candidates in the 2010 congressional elections.
NEWT GINGRICH
Leading members of Gingrich's campaign team resigned in June, and he has had a poor showing in opinion polls.
The former speaker of the House was the main architect of the 1994 Republican congressional election victory and author of the "Contract with America" political manifesto. Gingrich ended his 20-year congressional career after Republican losses in 1998 elections.
He has faced concerns among religious voters about his personal life. Gingrich is married to his third wife, with whom he had an affair while married to his second.
RON PAUL
An anti-war Republican congressman from Texas who ran unsuccessfully for the party's 2008 nomination, libertarian Paul, 75, is known as the "intellectual godfather of the Tea Party."
His calls for steep cuts in the federal deficit and the size of government have moved to the mainstream of debate in Congress since November when the fiscal conservative movement swept Republicans back into power in the House.
RICK SANTORUM
Santorum, once a leading Senate Republican, was badly defeated in his 2006 re-election bid.
He made a name for himself opposing abortion rights and gay marriage while backing welfare reform. He has campaigned hard to enhance his profile in early voting states but remains far back in the Republican field.
HERMAN CAIN
A radio talk show host and former chief executive officer of Godfather's Pizza, Cain was chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's board of directors and has never been elected to political office.
Democratic national chairwoman, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Florida, is weighing in on Gov. Rick Perry as a White House wannabe. She's underwhelmed.
"It think he brings just more of the same," she said at the Iowa State Fair while waiting on line to buy- we are not making this up - a deep fried Milky Way bar.
Like other Democrats, she says Perry's claims of a Texas miracle in job creation won't stand up under scrutiny.
"As we say in the South, that dog don't hunt," she said, arguing that many of the new jobs in Texas "have been really created by OPEC and their policy decisions. For Rick Perry to try to claim credit for those jobs is really disingenuous."
On top of that, she said, Perry's Texas received billions in federal stimulus funds. "We're talking about someone who has relied upon the benefits of the Recovery Act funding and policy decisions made by Democrats. This mystique and mythology about his success in job-creation needs to be deconstructed," she said.
Texas's unemployment rate is 8.2 percent, about one point less than the national average, and 40 percent of the nation's new jobs since June 2009 are in Texas, though many are low-wage.
"There is a dramatic contrast with the governor of Texas" when it comes to his record versus the president's on job creation," Wasserman Schultz said. "Not the least of which is that it is extremely difficult for him to deserve credit for that job creation when you have rising gas prices that created oil jobs that he had nothing to do with, when you had military spending as a result of two wars that created military jobs that he had nothing to do with, when you have the Recovery Act championed by President Obama that created jobs in Texas that he had nothing to do with."
She continued: "So it is way overblown to suggest that the job creation in Texas is squarely on the shoulders of [Perry's] policies."
Perry announced his bid for the 2012 Republican nomination in South Carolina on Saturday with a speech grounded in attacks on President Obama. The Texas Republican enters the race as one of the frontrunners for the nomination, and many have already pegged him as the biggest threat to former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney's candidacy.
In his Saturday speech announcing his candidacy, Perry accused Mr. Obama of "downgrading" American financial stability.
"The fact is for nearly three years, President Obama has been downgrading American jobs, he's been downgrading our standing in the world, he's been downgrading our financial stability, he's been downgrading our confidence, and downgrading the hope for a better future for our children," he said.
When asked about those comments, Wasserman Schultz defended Mr. Obama's record and called Perry's statements "inaccurate."
"I am incredibly proud of President Obama's accomplishments," she told O'Donnell. "This is a president that took on the health insurance industry and reformed healthcare to make sure that every American could have coverage and insurance companies couldn't drop you or deny you coverage; took on Wall Street, made sure that banks were not ever again too big to fail; made sure that we began to get our economy turned around -- so I think Americans are appreciative of the hard work and effort and accomplishment that President Obama has made.
