Surrounded by her grandchildren at her hotel in Ames on Wednesday, Carol Paul, wife of Texas congressman and presidential candidate Ron Paul, could only be described as animated.
With a two-page outline of the day’s agenda in hand, Carol Paul stood in the lobby merrily chatting with her daughter-in-law Kelley Paul, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul’s wife, and a number of campaign aides about her activities for the day.
“‘Sandwiches on the plane,’” she read from the itinerary. “Sometimes they try to give us an idea of what will happen and sometimes they don’t, and then I fuss.”
After nearly 40 years of standing by her husband’s side on the campaign trail, Carol Paul has been on the front lines of her husband’s two previous presidential campaigns and 12 terms as a member of the House of Representatives. Now, as Ron Paul gives the Republican presidential nomination bid a third try, Carol Paul is only looking positively at the race.
“As far as I’m concerned it is a win-win situation,” Paul said. “If he wins, it’s a win, and if he loses it’s a win. If he loses he gets to come back home and we get him. But, we are happy if we can do something for our country.”
Both Ron Paul and his son Rand Paul have spent the week running up to the much-anticipated Ames Straw Poll stumping around the state giving speeches, hosting meet-and-greets and talking with constituents at the Iowa State Fair. Back in Ames, Carol and Kelley Paul start their days early in the morning and go past 9 p.m., doing interviews and working at the campaign headquarters.
There really is no normal,” Kelly Paul said. “It seems like every event is a little different.
Flat out victory with an unambiguous first-place finish. That would drive his momentum, put him back in contention as a Mitt Romney alternative and offer irrefutable proof of life (and a source of free media) as he heads into fall. More important that anything else, a big, clear-cut win would give his bundlers and fundraisers a trophy to brandish with donor prospects—something that is crucial for him if he’s to continue after going all-in in Iowa.
He finishes fourth, behind Rick Santorum and/or Herman Cain. Realistically, Pawlenty’s floor is third place. Numerous Iowa GOP insiders say that after the former Minnesota governor’s investment of time, money, staff and energy in the state, he can’t finish behind Michele Bachmann. But a third-place showing might still allow him to continue, crippled, for a time into the fall. Fourth place is a likely campaign death.
Republican presidential candidates participated in the Iowa GOP/Fox News Debate at the CY Stephens Auditorium in Ames, Iowa, Thursday. From left, former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA); businessman Herman Cain; Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney; Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN); former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty; former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman; former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
GOP presidential candidates squared off during Thursday's debate. Rick Perry is expected to officially announce his White House bid tomorrow. And all 12 Super Committee members have been named. Guest host Allison Keyes discusses the latest politics with journalists Cynthia Tucker and Mary Kate Cary.
Best-case scenario: a blowout win at the straw poll. She bests Pawlenty’s organization and Ron Paul’s devoted followers then arrives for a round of already-scheduled Sunday morning talk show appearances as the new woman to be reckoned with. From there, Bachmann cuts into Rick Perry’s thunder at the Black Hawk County GOP fundraiser in Waterloo later that day. The Minnesota congresswoman could use her big win to further assure high-dollar donors that she’s a contender and would make it much tougher for Perry to peel away her supporters.
Worst-case scenario: Bachmann comes in a distant third or worse after the votes are cast. The results are unspinnable after a high campaign arc that shot her from tea party favorite to the top of the national polls, and in Iowa. Suddenly, Pawlenty’s “shooting star” description of her would be hard to overcome, and while Bachmann would continue to trudge along in the coming months, she’d most likely see her supporters start drifting toward Perry fairly quickly.
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