Ames Best and worst case scenarios

Surrounded by her grandchildren at her hotel in Ames on Wednesday, Carol Paul, wife of Texas congressman and presidential candidate Ron Paul, could only be described as animated.

With a two-page outline of the day’s agenda in hand, Carol Paul stood in the lobby merrily chatting with her daughter-in-law Kelley Paul, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul’s wife, and a number of campaign aides about her activities for the day.

“‘Sandwiches on the plane,’” she read from the itinerary. “Sometimes they try to give us an idea of what will happen and sometimes they don’t, and then I fuss.”

After nearly 40 years of standing by her husband’s side on the campaign trail, Carol Paul has been on the front lines of her husband’s two previous presidential campaigns and 12 terms as a member of the House of Representatives. Now, as Ron Paul gives the Republican presidential nomination bid a third try, Carol Paul is only looking positively at the race.

“As far as I’m concerned it is a win-win situation,” Paul said. “If he wins, it’s a win, and if he loses it’s a win. If he loses he gets to come back home and we get him. But, we are happy if we can do something for our country.”

Both Ron Paul and his son Rand Paul have spent the week running up to the much-anticipated Ames Straw Poll stumping around the state giving speeches, hosting meet-and-greets and talking with constituents at the Iowa State Fair. Back in Ames, Carol and Kelley Paul start their days early in the morning and go past 9 p.m., doing interviews and working at the campaign headquarters.

There really is no normal,” Kelly Paul said. “It seems like every event is a little different.

Flat out victory with an unambiguous first-place finish. That would drive his momentum, put him back in contention as a Mitt Romney alternative and offer irrefutable proof of life (and a source of free media) as he heads into fall. More important that anything else, a big, clear-cut win would give his bundlers and fundraisers a trophy to brandish with donor prospects—something that is crucial for him if he’s to continue after going all-in in Iowa.

He finishes fourth, behind Rick Santorum and/or Herman Cain. Realistically, Pawlenty’s floor is third place. Numerous Iowa GOP insiders say that after the former Minnesota governor’s investment of time, money, staff and energy in the state, he can’t finish behind Michele Bachmann. But a third-place showing might still allow him to continue, crippled, for a time into the fall. Fourth place is a likely campaign death.

Republican presidential candidates participated in the Iowa GOP/Fox News Debate at the CY Stephens Auditorium in Ames, Iowa, Thursday. From left, former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA); businessman Herman Cain; Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney; Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN); former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty; former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman; former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

GOP presidential candidates squared off during Thursday's debate. Rick Perry is expected to officially announce his White House bid tomorrow. And all 12 Super Committee members have been named. Guest host Allison Keyes discusses the latest politics with journalists Cynthia Tucker and Mary Kate Cary.

Best-case scenario: a blowout win at the straw poll. She bests Pawlenty’s organization and Ron Paul’s devoted followers then arrives for a round of already-scheduled Sunday morning talk show appearances as the new woman to be reckoned with. From there, Bachmann cuts into Rick Perry’s thunder at the Black Hawk County GOP fundraiser in Waterloo later that day. The Minnesota congresswoman could use her big win to further assure high-dollar donors that she’s a contender and would make it much tougher for Perry to peel away her supporters.

Worst-case scenario: Bachmann comes in a distant third or worse after the votes are cast. The results are unspinnable after a high campaign arc that shot her from tea party favorite to the top of the national polls, and in Iowa. Suddenly, Pawlenty’s “shooting star” description of her would be hard to overcome, and while Bachmann would continue to trudge along in the coming months, she’d most likely see her supporters start drifting toward Perry fairly quickly.

Mitt Romney lays low as GOP rivals spar in Iowa

DES MOINES -- A feisty Mitt Romney faced down unfriendly fairgoers at the Iowa State Fair Thursday, and he also issued an accidental one-liner destined for Democratic attack ads should he become the Republican nominee.

"Corporations are people, my friend," he said at one point, during a long back-and-forth on funding for Social Security and whether that funding should be a part of deficit negotiations.

"Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid account for about half of federal spending," he said as a heckler shouted, "That's a lie!."

"Let him talk," said another member of the audience.

"And if we are ultimately - not only this year but in the coming decades - going to be able to balance our federal budget and not spend more than we take in we have to make sure that the promises we make in Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare are promises we can keep. And there are various ways we can do that. One is we can raise taxes on people."

At this point a fairgoer interrupted to say something about corporations.

"Corporations are people, my friend," Romney said. "Of course they are," he added, "everything corporations earn ultimately goes to people.

Fellow Minnesotans Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann twice attacked each other on taxes and abortion. Ron Paul and Rick Santorum lobbed exchanges over Middle East foreign policy.

Meanwhile, Romney stayed out of the bickering.

One of the only unprompted ribbings at Romney — and his wealth — came early.

Former Minnesota governor Pawlenty promised that if anyone could find Obama’s plan for Social Security or Medicare reform, he’d personally cook them dinner or mow their lawn — with one exception.

“In case Mitt wins, I’m limiting it to one acre,” Pawlenty said.

That drew laughs from the audience and an uncomfortable smile from Romney: “That’s just fine.”

The candidates did tee off on Romney’s role in the creation of Massachusetts’ health-care program, once asked by moderators.

Santorum called it “the 10th Amendment run amok.” Pawlenty once again called it “Obamneycare.”

“Mitt, look, Obamacare was patterned after (health care) in Massachusetts,” Pawlenty said. “For Mitt or anyone else to say there aren’t substantial similarities . . . just isn’t credible.”

The nonbinding, but important, Ames Straw Poll takes place tomorrow, the same day Perry is slated to announce he’s jumping in the race. In polls conducted before he joined the race, Perry was within striking distance of Romney.

While his Republican rivals may have let him off the hook, crowds heckled the Bain Capital co-founder at an Iowa campaign stop earlier in the day.

Romney received an angry response when he said “corporations are people” after pledging not to raise taxes — even on the wealthy — to shore up Social Security and federal health-care programs for the poor and elderly.

Pawlenty sees Minnesota health law as U.S. model

Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty has stood strongly against both Barack Obama and fellow presidential candidate Mitt Romney for what he calls ‘Obamneycare.’ Pawlenty believes his state’s health care plan implemented in 2008 provides a paradigm for the nation’s health care coverage should he successfully take office, arguing he “passed health care reform the right way. No mandates. No takeovers. If I could do it in Minnesota, we could do it in Washington.”

Certain sources including health care experts and former advisors who counseled Pawlenty on the matter during his governorship have testified to the man they once called Governor Tim Pawlenty, the man that embraced universal healthcare. Pawlenty’s 2004 Citizens Forum on Health Care Costs chairman and former U.S. Senator David Durenberger disclosed a Pawlenty who allowed institution of low-cost insurance and new quality regulations for hospitals and doctors as consumer health incentives, some of the very same ideas contained in President Obama’s Affordable Care Act. In Durenberger’s opinion, Tim Pawlenty’s new talking points are ”unworthy of a governor of a state that has been working hard to create many of the care system and access innovations that the Affordable Care Act will help to fund with federal dollars as an example to the rest of the country.”

Using the ‘Obamneycare’ label to beat out competitor Mitt Romney, Pawlenty may be guilty of a similar flip-flop. Speaking highly of Romney’s attack on health care costs in 2006, Pawlenty said he was ”open to” a comparable insurance mandate, claiming that ”everybody should be in a health plan of some sort.” In fact, he worked to implement steps toward becoming a universally-covered state by proposing that same year to extend health care access to 90,000 uninsured children. ”We all, I think, can chart a path toward universal coverage. We’re going to have to move in stages. … We should start with covering all kids,” he said at a Minneapolis health reform conference. ” In 2007, he urged the Legislature to pass a state-regulated insurance exchange for individuals not covered by company coverage. Falling short of the individual insurance mandate, the plan did require purchasing all individual insurance policies through the exchange, a feature that serves as Obamacare’s focal point. The proposal failed, but Pawlenty appears to have changed his mind soon enough. Once the current federal health care reform took effect, Pawlenty joined 26 other state governors to challenge it’s constitutionality.

While Romney and Obama were adding millions of uninsured people to a broken health care system, Pawlenty says, he was getting to the root of the biggest problem: costs.

Critics, though, argue that it's too early to know whether the Minnesota law will lower costs and noted that it does little to expand insurance coverage. Others complain that while Pawlenty signed the law, he didn't show much leadership in getting it passed.

Former Sen. Dave Durenberger, R-Minn., who first got to know Pawlenty when he was Durenberger's driver, said it was Democratic legislators - not Pawlenty - who led the charge on the state law. "You have to put a priority on changing things," he said. "You've got to provide leadership. He never did that."

Some of the changes the Minnesota law made also can be found in the later federal overhaul. The state changed the way that physicians, hospitals and other medical providers are paid, rewarding them for high-quality care and for coordinating care for chronic conditions such as diabetes through health care "homes."

For some conditions, medical providers are paid one fee to cover all the costs of related services. One pot of money, for example, pays for a patient's knee replacement, from preoperative services to anesthesia and rehabilitation. The federal law also contains provisions to pay providers more for high-quality care and to test similar payment restructuring.

The state law created a tool to compare costs and quality information and a program to encourage Minnesotans to stop smoking and to lose weight to prevent conditions such as cancer, heart disease and diabetes. In 2009, about 63 percent of Minnesotans were overweight or obese, and 17 percent used tobacco. The state estimates that the program could bring 10 percent of overweight adults back to the normal range and get 6 percent of smokers to stub out their tobacco. The result could be $1.9 billion less in total health care spending by 2015.

As Pawlenty seeks to gain momentum in the race for the GOP nomination, he's continuing his focus on costs and spending. He says the government must put an end to runaway expenditures on entitlement programs such as Medicare and Medicaid. He also says he supports high-deductible health savings accounts in which consumers pay a large portion of their initial health costs but can put aside pretax income to cover those expenses.

Pawlenty has said he supports the Medicare plan that House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis., proposed, which would raise the eligibility age from 65 to 67 and change the program so that seniors get help with paying the premiums for private insurance plans. Currently, Medicare pays whatever is necessary to provide a set of specified benefits.

Unlike most states, Minnesota traditionally has enjoyed a high rate of insurance among residents, so Pawlenty was under little pressure to expand coverage. For low-income residents who didn't qualify for Medicaid - mainly childless adults - the state offered two additional subsidized health insurance plans.

Still, consumer advocates say, it was a constant battle to maintain the state's coverage levels. "The first place Governor Pawlenty looked when there was budget trouble was cutting people off of health care," said Liz Doyle, the policy director of the consumer group TakeAction Minnesota.

By the end of Pawlenty's second term, Minnesota still ranked high in coverage but had lost some ground. Uninsured people accounted for 6.1 percent of the state's population in 2001 and 9 percent in 2009, according to Minnesota government figures; that's half the national average.

As he was positioning himself for a presidential campaign, Pawlenty was the subject of intense criticism in 2009, when he used his line-item veto authority to try to end the state's General Assistance Medical Care program, which then was serving about 33,000 low-income adults. State expenditures were growing by about 30 percent every two years, according to McClung, who said that was because it was a fee-for-service-style program.

Pawlenty wanted to shift participants to MinnesotaCare, another state program for people without insurance. Consumer advocates and Democrats in the legislature fought the change because they feared that administrative requirements would make it more difficult for some people to remain covered. In the end, Pawlenty and the Democratic-controlled legislature agreed to change the program so that the state would give hospitals a set amount of money to care for eligible people in their areas.

But that was unrealistic for thousands of people, Doyle said, because only a handful of hospitals chose to participate, shutting off access for those in other areas.

Durenberger calls Pawlenty a moderate in many areas and praises him for establishing a health care commission to study the issue soon after he became governor. But he's critical of aspects of Pawlenty's approach to health care.

"Once he found that solution, he was like most Republicans," the former senator says. "Arm everyone with a high-deductible option and give them skin in the game and you have the answer.

Dozens of Donors Back Multiple GOP Presidential Candidates

AMES, IOWA - Texas Gov. Rick Perry wasn't on stage at Thursday night's GOP debate at Iowa State University, but his orange-clad supporters in their Longhorns' T-shirts are making his presence felt in the state.

That could be trouble for Minnesota's two presidential hopefuls. Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty tried to boost their campaigns by trading barbs during the televised debate, but Perry is about to land hard in the presidential race, with a same-day announcement that could instantly dull the glow of whoever wins Saturday's straw poll.

"He's from Texas, and he's a larger-than-life governor," said Ryan Rhodes, who organized a recent Tea Party bus tour through Iowa that included Bachmann.

As the longest-serving governor in Texas history, Perry, 61, brings the executive credentials that Pawlenty has used to set himself apart from Bachmann. An unabashed evangelical Christian who last week hosted a 30,000-person prayer rally in Houston, Perry also brings the social conservative passion that has marked Bachmann's run.

In true Texas style, Perry plans to take the fight right to his rivals, with a Sunday visit to Bachmann's childhood home of Waterloo. A late entry who has never run a national campaign before, Perry is seen as someone able to work both sides of the party divide: Once thought as a moderate GOP conservative in the mold of former President George W. Bush, Perry has gone Tea Party in recent years.

When I did give the money, it was to go to session with them, and my primary motivation was to get a feel for them," Bialek, a retiree from Woodside, Calif., told OpenSecrets Blog. "I was trying to find out if I wanted to support them."

He is far from the only individual who has donated to both of the former governors.

At least 66 individuals have contributed to both campaigns through the second quarter of 2011, new research by the Center for Responsive Politics shows. And about half of those donors gave $2,500 or more to both men.

Some of the people making these double contributions are prominent Republican donors who have had a heavy hand in previous Republican campaigns.

For instance, Texas billionaires Bob Perry and Harold Simmons, along with both of their wives, have given $5,000 a piece to Pawlenty and $2,500 a piece to Romney, according to the Center's research. The Simmonses have also donated $2,500 a piece to former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.).

Both Simmons and Perry, seven years ago, gave generously to the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, the 527 committee that criticized Democrat John Kerry during the 2004 presidential election. And last year, they each gave seven-figure sums to American Crossroads, the new conservative super PAC that invested heavily in advertisements in numerous congressional races.

Overall, at least 325 individuals who donated $200 or more during the first six months of 2011 contributed to multiple presidential candidates, a new analysis by the Center shows. Two hundred dollars is the threshold for itemized disclosure under federal law.

Tim Pawlenty: Michele Bachmann attack 'not about gender'

Washington - Tim Pawlenty isn't backing down from his debate-night criticism of Rep. Michele Bachmann, saying Bachmann's gender didn't play into his choice of words.

Asked in a Politico forum whether it was a mistake to go after a female candidate using strong language, Pawlenty said, "It's not about gender, it's about the issues."

Pawlenty continued, "Representative Bachman likes to assign herself the label of leader. Well if you're going to be a leader, you have to be accountable for results."

Pawlenty went on to echo some of his criticisms of Bachmann, namely that her claims of success in Congress didn't match up to reality.

"Everything she's lead the charge against, she's not accomplished," Pawlenty said. "That's not good enough to be the president of the United States. With respect, she's done wonderful things in life, but we're not going to have a nominee that's someone who hasn't achieved results."

"No one's questioning her spine, they're questioning her results," Pawlenty said.

On Thursday night, Pawlenty went after Bachmann using similar terminology.

Breakfast in Des Moines, Pawlenty disputed the notion that he had gone after Bachmann too harshly in Thursday night’s GOP presidential debate. Pawlenty said he didn’t think he’d pay a price for attacking the lone female candidate on the stage.

“It’s not about gender. It’s about the issues and it’s about results and it’s about leading and saving our country,” Pawlenty said, noting that “Congresswoman Bachmann likes to assign herself the label of the leader.”

“She says, ‘I led the charge against Obamacare.’ Well, we ended up with Obamacare,” Pawlenty said, mentioning Bachmann’s unsuccessful opposition to federal spending and the 2008 bank bailout.

“Everything she’s led the charge against, she’s failed to accomplish. That’s not gonna be good enough for our nominee for president of the United States,” Pawlenty said. “We’re not gonna have a nominee and we’re not gonna put somebody in the Oval Office who has not achieved results during her time in Congress.

Michele Bachmann And Tim Pawlenty Go Head-To-Head

Tim Pawlenty acknowledged Friday that he “may not have any choice” but to dramatically scale back the size of his campaign organization if he falls flat at the Iowa straw poll this weekend.

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In response to a question from Jonathan Martin at POLITICO’s Playbook Breakfast in Des Moines, Pawlenty said he was “confident” his efforts in Iowa would pay off in Ames.

“We’re seeing some nice movement in the numbers. I can’t tell you that we’re gonna win it tomorrow or that we need to win it,” he said. “I think it’ll be a good result.”

Still, Pawlenty said that he’d “probably” have to cut back on his national campaign organization if he fails to score the kind of straw poll result he’s looking for.

“Would we have to retrench in some fashion? Probably, but I don’t think that’s gonna happen,” Pawlenty said. “I think we’re gonna do very well.”

The key exchanges were between Bachmann, a congresswoman from Minnesota, and Pawlenty, Minnesota's former governor, who are in a battle to see who can come out ahead of the other in a key straw poll vote Saturday in Ames.

For weeks, the two had been bashing one another, mostly on the campaign trail here in Iowa. Bachmann has claimed the title of Iowa frontrunner, while Pawlenty has been playing catch up in advance of Saturday's straw poll. Fox News' Chris Wallace was quick to give the two an opportunity to fight it out in person.

Pawlenty, whose argument has been that he has the executive experience as a governor that Bachmann lacks, said the congresswoman has "done wonderful things in her life, absolutely wonderful things, but it's an indisputable fact that in Congress her record of accomplishments and results is nonexistent. That's not going to be good enough."

As Pawlenty, whose fiber was questioned after he failed to take on Mitt Romney in the last debate, delivered his rebuke, he turned to face Bachmann, but turned away after a few moments. Bachmann, in her response, faced Pawlenty the entire time she spoke. She blasted his record as governor.

The two went back and forth for a few more minutes, with Bachmann lauding her own record of fighting Democratic proposals, such as President Obama's health care overhaul as well as cap and trade legislation. But Pawlenty, growing more animated, said that she had failed to stop the health care bill, as well as increases in spending and the 2008 bailout of Wall Street banks, which was actually implemented under Republican President George W. Bush.

"She said she's got a titanium spine. It's not your spine we're worried about, it's your record of results," Pawlenty said. "If that's your view of effective results and leadership, then please stop because you're killing us."

The two sparred again minutes later over a cigarette tax passed in 2005 that Bachmann voted in favor of and Pawlenty signed. Bachmann said she voted for it only because it was attached to an anti-abortion measure. She accused Pawlenty of cutting deals with special interests, while Pawlenty said her statements were "illogical."

The consensus afterward among the pundits and campaign operatives was that Bachmann came out on top, in part because her response was so strong and in part because Pawlenty came across as too negative. Kent Sorensen, a Republican state legislator who is supporting Bachmann, certainly felt that way.

"She exposed [Pawlenty] for the phony that he is," Sorensen said. "He came out with the first punch and she came back with a roundhouse."

Moments after each exchange, Bachmann campaign staff circulated through the press room, handing out detailed press releases attacking Pawlenty's record and detailing why Bachmann voted for the cigarette tax.

Clearly, Bachmann was prepared for the incoming fire. She entered the night in a dramatically different position than she had nearly two months ago at her first debate. That night, in New Hampshire, she announced her candidacy, introduced herself and her biography to voters and impressed observers with her poise.

Thursday night she had a large target on her back and much more to lose.

Before the debate began, some Iowa Republican insiders expressed doubt about the extent to which she has had time to organize for the straw poll, and said expectations for her performance Saturday may be too high. Her debate performance will likely do nothing to dampen her support and could give her more.

However, even if she wins the straw poll, or finishes a close second, she will face a newly-formed threat in the form of Texas Gov. Rick Perry. Perry's impending entry into the race was confirmed several hours before the debate by a spokesman in Texas. It was timed in such a way that it was almost impossible for the moderators of the debate to avoid asking the eight candidates on stage about the soon-to-be candidate.

But Bachmann was the only frontrunner asked about him, and that was only in passing.

"I think there is room in the race for Sarah Palin, Rick Perry or even Bret, you too," she said to Fox News' Bret Baier.

Perry has registered in second place in some national poll numbers out just this week, behind former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Some have speculated that he will immediately become the frontrunner in the race, displacing or threatening Romney, who had a shaky moment on the stump at the Iowa State Fair earlier in the day on Thursday. Questioned aggressively by Iowans during his appearance at the Des Moines Register "soapbox," Romney grew agitated. His line that "corporations are people" was the moment that headlined news dispatches, but it was the level of emotional volatility -- the picture of him yelling at voters -- that might prove just as damaging.

At the very least, Perry has the potential to steal Bachmann's thunder with grassroots conservatives and Tea Party voters. He can match her charisma. And he has a lengthy track record in Texas that is certainly full of vulnerabilities but also boasts a topline achievement of having created more than a third of all new jobs in the U.S. since 2009.

Bachmann had already signaled earlier Thursday, before Perry's office made his entry semi-official, that she sees him as a direct competitor. Her campaign announced that she would attend the same Black Hawk County Republican dinner in Waterloo on Sunday afternoon where Perry is scheduled to make his debut in the Hawkeye State.

Perry's entrance, as complicating as it might be for Bachmann, is probably more troubling for Pawlenty -- another candidate who has been trying to catch up to Bachmann in Iowa and must do well in the straw poll Saturday to even sustain his campaign, at least in its current form and size.

It was the first debate for Jon Huntsman, the former U.S. ambassador to China and Utah governor. He entered the night needing, at the very least, to make a memorable first impression with Republican primary voters. But he did little to stand out.

Romney was in some ways an afterthought, in part because he has downplayed the importance of Iowa, and as a result expectations for him here are lower. But the other candidates were often so busy fighting with one another that, again, he went unscathed. Afterward, his campaign immediately announced that he had "won the debate."

Pawlenty was asked whether he still believes Romney's health care reform in Massachusetts was similar to Obama's federal plan, but the exchange lacked punch. It did spark a fascinating exchange about how each candidate views the extent to which states are sovereign and have the ability to impose things on their citizens. Paul, a Texas congressman, stated a broad view of states' rights, while Santorum, a former senator from Pennsylvania, said that the 10th amendment discussion had "run amok."

Santorum said that if a state wanted to make polygamy legal, that should not be allowed.

"I respect the 10th Amendment, but we are a nation that has values," he said. "States don't have the right to tramp over those because of the 10th Amendment."

One of the other most intense exchanges was an extended back and forth between the same two men.

Paul said he did not have a problem with Iran trying to obtain nuclear weapons.

"Why wouldn't it be natural that they might want a weapon ... Why should we write people off?" he asked. "What's so terribly bad about this?"

Santorum was aghast.

"Iran is not Iceland, Ron. Iran is a country that has been at war with us since 1979," he said.

Paul said that the U.S. has meddled in Iran since the CIA was involved in the 1953 coup of Iran's democratically elected prime minister.

"We just plain don't mind our own business ... that's the problem," Paul said.

The two went another round, which ended with Paul nearly screaming about the "trillions" of dollars spent on foreign wars. As usual, a loud contingent of fans cheered him on.

Gingrich, the former House Speaker from Georgia, was also animated in denouncing the so-called "super committee" appointed by Congress to reduce the deficit by $1.5 trillion, calling it "as dumb an idea as Washington has come up with."

He also didn't like some of the questions thrown his way about the departure of large numbers of his staff earlier this year, and told Wallace so.

"I took seriously [fellow host] Bret [Baier]'s injunction to put aside the talking points. I wish you would put aside the gotcha questions," he said, to some ooos and ahhhs.

Gingrich then went on to compare himself twice to Ronald Reagan, who had staff departures during his run for the White House in 1980.

Wallace didn't take it lightly. "If you think questions about your record are Mickey Mouse, I'm sorry," he said, with disdain. "I think those are questions people want to hear answers to.

Tim Pawlenty in frantic spending blitz ahead of Ames

With Mitt Romney still the GOP presidential frontrunner following Thursday's debate in Iowa, the next big item on Romney's to-do list is figuring out how to deal with the nascent candidacy that Texas Gov. Rick Perry will launch Saturday in South Carolina.

Politico explores the Romney-Perry dynamic at length in an article published Friday morning.

"The Texas governor may present the last best hope of beating Romney, the tenuous but still dent-free frontrunner. … Romney's high command wasn't ready to directly contrast their candidate's record with Perry, but they were happy to begin laying the groundwork for a campaign that will portray the decade-long Texas governor as a career politician running at a moment of maximum skepticism toward politicians.

The Associated Press also provided an analysis on Perry's possible impact on the race, saying the Texas governor may pose the biggest threat to Romney's campaign.

A glimpse of Perry's campaign message can be found in Mike Allen's latest Playbook column for Politico, where Allen includes an excerpt from "a late draft of Texas Gov. Rick Perry's presidential announcement speech to be delivered in Columbia, S.C.

With the support of the national campaign office, you don’t have to ask, ‘Can I ?’ or ‘Should I?’ There’s a clear strategic mission: We have an open checkbook to do what we need to do on the ground,” said Christian Fong, co-chair of Pawlenty’s Iowa campaign.

Fong, whose own run 2010 run for Iowa governor built him a statewide network of activists, called it an “embarrassment of riches” with “no resource constraints.” He said he recently wrote to Sarah Huckabee Sanders, who’s directing Pawlenty’s straw poll strategy, asking for additional transportation.

“I said, ‘I need a bus at this parking lot at this time,’ said Fong, who is coordinating the region around his home in Cedar Rapids. “She said, ‘Done, thanks.’”

Starting Thursday, the campaign pulled his ads to strategically redirect money toward getting out the vote at Ames.

The Pawlenty campaign is buying straw poll tickets for its supporters and will have campaign T-shirts waiting on the buses that are hitting every major metropolitan region, said activists. Some buses have been directed to stop in the more rural areas of the state on the way to Ames to pick up additional supporters.

The campaign will also be running continuous shuttles between Ankeny and Ames, which is about a 30-minute drive, for those who want to vote and leave right away. Another Pawlenty shuttle will be picking Iowans up from a Wal-Mart parking lot a few miles from Ames, helping them to skip the hassles of finding parking and crowds.

With the largest paid campaign staff in Iowa and the longest list of endorsements from members of the state GOP, political observers agree Pawlenty has the organizational upper hand.

They’re also heavy on the campaign gear.

In an email to supporters on Monday, Pawlenty’s campaign manager Nick Ayers offered “one-of-a-kind prizes” — like signed hockey jerseys and copies of Pawlenty’s autobiography — in exchange for placing phone calls on the candidate’s behalf. And for the past week, volunteers and paid staffers have been working the phones, reminding Iowans to attend the straw poll — as many as three times a week.

“The only calls I’ve gotten from anyone else have been automated robocalls, quick surveys,” said Polk County GOP Chair David Funk, who is remaining neutral this presidential cycle. “With Pawlenty, they’re real people that are calling. That’s effective boots on the ground.”

And Pawlenty’s even been hitting the phone himself, dialing up activists to get personal pledges of support between stump stops.

“He’s the one candidate right now putting an emphasis on the college vote,” said Iowa State College Republicans member Adam Meinecke, who got a surprise call from the governor on Sunday and will support him in the straw poll.

Hamilton County GOP chair Mark Greenfield said he’s surprised that with such a methodical operation isn’t helping Pawlenty in the polls.

Stocks Trim Gains on Weak Consumer Sentiment Data

NEW YORK— U.S. stocks pared their early gains on Friday as traders dissected mixed reports on consumer sentiment, retail sales and business inventories after a week of record-setting gains and losses on Wall Street.

The government says that consumers spent more on autos, furniture and gasoline in July, pushing up retail sales by the largest amount in four months. But a survey on consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level in more than 30 years. And a separate report showed that businesses increased their stockpiles in July by the smallest amount since May 2010.

Traders are already dizzy from seesaw trading driven by concerns about economic growth and a spreading financial crisis in Europe.

In midmorning trading, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 78 points, or 0.7 percent, to 11,222. The Standard & Poor's 500 index was up 6, or 0,5 percent at 1179. The Nasdaq composite index rose 5, or 0.2 percent, to 2,498.

If shares close higher, it will be the first time in more than a month that the market has risen two days in a row. The Dow and the S&P last rose for two trading days on July 6 and 7.

A bath of bad economic news has pummeled markets since before they started their long slide three weeks ago, on July 22. At Thursday's close, the Dow had fallen more than 12 percent since that date.

The strong retail sales added to a recent trend of more positive data about the economy. The government said last week that hiring picked up in July after two dismal months, though employers still are adding jobs too slowly to significantly reduce unemployment. On Thursday, the government said that applications for unemployment benefits had fallen to a four-month low.

But any gains are seen as fragile. If consumer sentiment remain weak, sales would likely slow.

Shares have swung by hundreds of points each day this week as traders react with hair triggers to news about the economy, Federal Reserve policy and a financial crisis in Europe that threatens to spill over into U.S. banks.

There is no question the sharp selloff in asset markets around the world over the past few weeks, on top of an already fragile economic picture, had a major influence on today's reading," wrote Peter Boockvar, managing director at Miller Tabak + Co., in a note to clients.

Retail sales climbed 0.5% in July, which was inline with estimates and the biggest gain since March. Excluding automobiles, sales climbed 0.5%, which was slightly better than forecasts of a gain of 0.2%.

"The consumer is at the center of the weak economy debate ... and as such, even a modestly better-than-expected number today provides us with some level of relief," Daniel Greenhaus, chief global strategist at BTIG, wrote in a note, referring to the closely-watched component that excludes automobile sales.

Retailers, such as Target (TGT: 47.89, +0.62, +1.31%) and Best Buy (BBY: 24.52, -0.43, -1.72%), can be particularly affected by these data, but it often has an impact on the broader markets.

Trading has been tumultuous in the last four trading sessions. The Dow has made 400-point gyrations higher and lower during every trading day this week -- for the first time in history. The Dow soared 423 points on Thursday, on the heels of a 520 points in violent trading where 100-point swings could happen in moments.

"The climate is fraught with risk," Peter Kenny, managing director at Knight Capital Group, wrote in a note, adding the instability has also created a slew of trading opportunities.

Wall Street paid close attention to headlines from Europe on Thursday, where media reports suggested certain large French banks may have capital issues. However, the banks denied the rumors, and on Friday, France, Italy, Spain and Belgium restricted short selling on affected issues, in a bid to stem the losses. The move sent European indicies soaring earlier in the session, and helped stock futures turn around.

The domestic economy has come into focus amid fears economic output and labor expansion may have hit a soft patch.

Gold, which has seen massive buying amid the volatility in equities, was fairly tame on Friday. The precious metal gained $3.40, or 0.2%, to $1,755 a troy ounce. In currencies, the euro gained 0.16% against the U.S. dollar, and the greenback slipped 0.13% against a basket of world currencies.

Energy futures were modestly higher. Light, sweet crude gained 2 cents, or 0.02%, to $85.71 a barrel. Wholesale RBOB gasoline climbed 2 cents, or 0.66%, to $2.85 a gallon.

Consumer gasoline prices have moderated following a downshift in wholesale markets. A gallon of regular costs $3.61 on average nationwide, down from $3.65 last month, but still well higher than the $2.78 drivers paid last year.

Cap and Trade Becomes a Bludgeon in Republican Primary Brawl

Eight Republican presidential candidates took the stage in C.Y. Stephens Auditorium at Iowa State University to debate everything from the economy and foreign policy to the freedom to use the light bulb of your choice. But looming over the proceedings was the prospect of the Texas governor’s entry into the race for the GOP nomination.


The performances of the candidates varied, with a few of them helping their campaigns and a few others probably hurting their chances. But none of them seemed to race far ahead of the pack. Thus, the keen interest among Republican voters in Perry’s candidacy.


Although the debate was not always enlightening, GOP voters certainly got a clear look at the announced field of candidates. The two-hour event offered useful glimpses of their personalities and their perspectives on prominent issues.


From an entertainment standpoint, the highlights of the talkfest were a couple of feisty exchanges between fellow Minnesotans Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann. Pawlenty attacked Bachmann’s slight record as a member of Congress. Bachmann countered by accusing Pawlenty of having a record of less-than-conservative views.


But neither Minnesotan emerged as the debate’s winner. While they traded insults, others displayed more serious-minded rhetoric. Mitt Romney was the most presidential — “the adult” in the room, as more than one observer put it. Ron Paul was the most passionate and straightforward, while Newt Gingrich exhibited the best grasp of history and conservative philosophy.


Paul stood out with his feisty libertarian and anti-war views. He returned several times to the theme that the United States should stay out of the business of other countries. He also drew a contrast with his more socially conservative competitors by suggesting that government has no business regulating marriage. “Why do we have to have a license to get married?” he asked.


Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) repeatedly tore into former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty last night for his past support of a cap-and-trade program during an Iowa debate featuring eight Republicans seeking their party's nomination.


A surging tea party adherent, Bachmann accused the flagging Pawlenty, once considered a leading climate advocate, of pursuing policies identical to those of President Obama.


"When you were governor of Minnesota, you implemented cap and trade in our state, and you praised the unconstitutional individual [health] mandate, and ... you said the era of small government was over. That sounds a lot more like Barack Obama if you ask me."


Pawlenty, who helped lead a multi-state consortium toward a regional cap-and-trade program, accused Bachmann of misrepresenting his record on health care, taxes and climate policies.


"She has a record of misstatements," said Pawlenty, whose candidacy is perceived to be struggling from a "Minnesota nice" passivity.


Pawlenty is one of several Republican candidates who have retreated from previous positions acknowledging the science of climate change, and a need to address it. Others include former Rep. Newt Gingrich (R- Ga.) and former Govs. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and Jon Huntsman of Utah.


Two weeks ago, Huntsman told the moderate group Republicans for Environmental Protection that science should lead the discussion on climate change, though he no longer supports a cap-and-trade program. He was asked last night about his previous pursuit of a multi-state emission reduction accord.


Huntsman sidestepped a direct response, but said, "I am running on my record, and I'm proud to run on my record."


The sin of being "too reasonable"


That effort to avoid flip-flopping could save him from the criticism that plagued candidates in the past, including Romney in 2008. But his refusal to put distance between his moderate record and his primary campaign is raising questions about the resiliency of his candidacy.


Thomas Mann, a congressional scholar with the Brookings Institute, is skeptical about the effectiveness of Huntsman's position on climate change during the Republican primary.


"It makes him appear entirely too reasonable and mainstream for the contemporary GOP," Thomas Mann, a congressional scholar with the Brookings Institution, said of Huntsman position on climate change.


Frontrunner Romney was largely spared from attacks by his trailing opponents in the debate last night. He wasn't asked about his past support for a 10-state cap-and-trade program, which as governor he accepted. Romney later opposed the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative before it was implemented.


He suffered in his last presidential campaign for changing his position on several issues. This year, Romney is staying focused on his established principles, including his belief that climate change is occurring. But he had questions about the extent.


"We've been very focused and very disciplined on message about what Americans care about right now," said Ron Kaufman, a Republican strategist affiliated with Romney's campaign. "And what they care about most is the big picture -- jobs and the economy. Obviously environment and energy and innovations are important. But they're only important as they play into the bigger picture."


Environmentalists targeted the candidates before the debate as pandering to conservative voters who denounce government regulations, at the expense of public health and reduced pollution.


The liberal Center for American Progress accused each Republican of demonizing U.S. EPA policies designed to reduce toxic air pollution. The criticism aligns the candidates with energy corporations, while rebutting long-held Republican attacks describing EPA regulations as a job-killing byproduct of big government.


"Every family has the right to expect clean air, free of the elevated heart and lung disease risks that air pollution poses," Noreen Nielson, the energy communications director for CAP's action fund, wrote in a blog asserting that Iowans would feel "devastating" impacts if Republicans block the EPA from enforcing the Clean Air Act.


President Obama was also in the Midwest yesterday. His appearance at Johnson Controls in Holland, Mich., emphasized the same theme as those of his Republican challengers: jobs.


Wind and corn both play in Iowa


After a week of dizzying market fluctuations, the nation's first credit downgrade and ominous signs from Europe's economy, Obama tried to reassure the nation that a bright spot in the storm is in the clean energy sector.


Higher fuel economy standards -- which he noted were imposed without congressional action -- will help new markets emerge, like the advanced battery plant he was visiting in Michigan, Obama said to the company's workers (see related story).


Obama's Republican challengers will also have an opportunity to promote clean energy. Iowa has more wind power capacity than every state but Texas, and it provides about 20 percent of the state's electricity, according to the American Wind Energy Association.


All of the candidates are expected to sign a wind blade measuring 130 feet long that was built in Iowa by TPI Composites, Inc., says AWEA. The group credits the state's renewable energy portfolio and other pro-wind policies for generating clean energy investments amounting to about $5 billion in Iowa.


"Today wind turbines are almost as much a part of Iowa's fabric as corn," Denise Bode, AWEA's CEO, said in a statement.

Stocks Open Higher in U.S.; Europe Up

BERLIN --The German government supports a far-reaching ban on short-selling in Europe, the finance ministry said Friday, after four European Union countries banned the short-selling of certain stocks.

The Europe-wide ban should be on naked short-selling of shares, sovereign debt and credit default swaps, the ministry told Dow Jones Newswires in an emailed statement.

"That's the only way of countering destructive speculation in a convincing way," the ministry said.

"The measures now announced by France, Italy, Spain and Belgium find our full support," the statement added.

The governments of those countries late Thursday imposed bans on the short-selling of certain financial stocks and derivatives linked to them amid extreme volatility on financial markets.

The U.K.'s Financial Services Authority refused to go along with the initiative, however, and the German regulator Bafin also declined to tighten its existing regime.

The strong start to trading on Wall Street could extend the market’s gains from Thursday. While Asian stocks had a lackluster trading day, the Euro Stoxx 50 index of euro zone blue chips was up 4 percent in afternoon trading and the FTSE 100 index in London was up 2.6 percent. The CAC 40 index in Paris was up 3.7 percent, and the DAX in Frankfurt 3.4 percent.

In early trading, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index rose 1.2 percent. The Dow Jones industrial average was up 1.2 percent and the Nasdaq was up 0.7 percent.

The American stock market this week has been wildly volatile, with alternating days of collapsing and then sharply rising prices. The mood has swung between speculation about a renewed financial crisis and confidence that banks are healthy and corporate profits strong.

So far this week, the S.&P. 500 is down by 2.2 percent.

Bans on so-called short-selling of bank shares took effect in France, Italy, Spain and Belgium Friday, giving some relief to pressured bank shares. France, Italy and Spain said the bans would be in effect for 15 days, while Belgium did not set an expiration date. The Stoxx Europe 600 Banks index was up 2.8 percent in afternoon trading.

Germany said it supported the move by its neighbors and would push for other countries to adopt its own ban on so-called naked short-selling, which involves selling securities without having the underlying assets, in the hope of buying them back at a lower price.

“We are advocating a wide-reaching ban on naked short-selling of stocks, sovereign bonds, and credit default swaps,” a German Finance Ministry spokesman, Martin Kotthaus, told Reuters in Berlin. “Only this way can destructive speculation be countered convincingly.”

Despite figures released Friday showing that economic growth had stalled in France in the second quarter, some analysts said growing confidence in France’s underlying strength and ability to honor its debt also lifted stocks.

“The market probably starts to believe that France won’t be downgraded,” Dirk Hoffmann-Becking, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein in London, said.

The three major credit rating agencies each issued statements on Wednesday saying France’s credit rating was not at risk. Concern about such a downgrade had gripped markets ever since Standard & Poor’s downgraded its rating for United States debt for the first time last week.

But Mr. Hoffmann-Becking added that there was “still a huge amount of nervousness, and issuing a short selling ban is never a sign of confidence.”

“Ultimately it boils down to fundamentals and the question whether there is going to be a significant political response to the ongoing stress,” he said.

The Italian government was to meet Friday night to approve emergency measures designed to balance the budget by 2013 — one year earlier than planned. The action comes after Italy’s borrowing costs spiked earlier this month because of increasing nervousness over the country’s ability to manage its huge debt burden.

Uncertainty about what European leaders would or could do next to prevent the sovereign debt crisis from spreading was spooking the markets as well.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel are set to meet in Paris on Tuesday to discuss ways to strengthen political and economic governance among the countries that share the euro as a common currency.

With investors still on tenterhooks after days of massive volatility in markets around the world, the Nikkei 225 in Japan ended 0.2 percent lower, while Taiwan and South Korea both retreated more than 1 percent. The Straits Times in Singapore also climbed 1.3 percent midafternoon, and the main market gauge in Hong Kong added 0.8 percent, and in mainland China, the Shanghai composite index climbed 0.4 percent. Australia ended up 0.8 percent.

Those gains were muted compared to the late surge in Europe on Thursday, which carried through to Wall Street. After another day of wild swings, the Dow Jones industrial average ended nearly 4 percent higher, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 4.6 percent.

Traders and strategists attributed the gains there to bargain hunting and an easing — at least for now — of concerns about the financial health of some of Europe’s banks and what their problems might mean for banks in the United States.

But overall, analysts said, investors remained on edge for any disturbing news on the European debt front, and for any signs that U.S. economic growth is languishing or worsening.

“Given the damage to sentiment in the past few weeks, it is hard to see markets rebounding healthily straight away. The risk that the market turmoil tips the world into a new recession and causes earnings to turn down sharply has risen,” Garry Evans, the global head of equity strategy at HSBC in Hong Kong, wrote in a note Friday. “It will be a few months before the smoke clears and it becomes plain how much damage has been done.

Germany has already banned naked short-selling of certain stocks and sovereign debt of euro-zone countries, as well as of euro-zone sovereign debt credit default swaps since 2010, the German finance ministry said.

The German federal banking association BdB, the Bundesverband Deutscher Banken, rejected a permanent ban on stock-market short-selling.