Ron Paul Ames Straw Poll win is win for Rick Perry, Mitt Romney

America's history when Iowa Republicans descended upon the grounds of their flagship university to gorge themselves on sticks of fried food, snap photos with some of America's most famous politicians and, oh yeah, vote for who they want to be the next president of the United States.


GOP hopefuls, or more accurately Iowa hopefuls, have been dolling out campaign swag, snacks, sweets and speeches to Iowa voters in the hopes of persuading them to cast a ballot in their favor in Saturday's Ames Straw Poll. But this vote, in every legal sense of the word, is meaningless.


It does not count toward the Iowa caucus nor does it play in the general election. In fact, historically it has had little correlation with who will be a successful candidate.


Of the five straw poll winners in history, three have gone on to win the Iowa caucus, two managed to secure the Republican nomination and only one has ever made it to the White House. Statistically speaking, a highly coveted win in Ames gives a candidate about a 20 percent chance of even getting on the ballot in the general election.


But don't tell Ron Paul that. The Texas Congressman forked over $31,000 to secure a prime tent-pitching spot on the grassy knoll closest to the Hilton Coliseum, where voting will take place. Tim Pawlenty has already paid a pretty penny as well, spending at least $50,000 to bus supporters into Ames.


Ron Paul wins at Ames - a possibility that's quite real - it is good for Rick Perry. It keeps Michele Bachmann from galvanizing her support base, prevents a potential Mitt Romney alternative (Tim Pawlenty) from resurrection and gives Perry a major window.


But it's also not a terrible scenario for Romney, who is skipping Ames but is also engaged in a delicate dance over how heavily he competes in a state he has a complicated relationship with.


Continue Reading
Romney's best hope is a clear Bachmann win. But a Paul win would help to diminish the overall process in Iowa to outsiders, and could potentially confirm the critiques that GOP caucus-goers are a slender electoral slice that doesn't represent much of the rest of the Republican party.


Paul isn't actually a member of the evangelical wing of the party, which has an outsized role in the process. He's a libertarian who is generally anti-establishment.


But that would be a distinction lost in most of the write-ups about the meaning of a Paul win. And Romney, in his absence from the Iowa State University grounds and lack of emphasis on the role of the conservative right, could be a beneficiary.