Friday 12 August 2011

Don't expect gas prices to drop with crude

Energy experts say as world economies slow and the price per barrel of oil drops, the price at the gas pump could also quickly drop in the coming weeks.
Experts said gas prices could drop as much as $.50 over the next several weeks.
Gas prices have already dropped $.13 a gallon in the past week.
The current average price for a gallon of gas nationwide was $3.62.
The current average price for a gallon of gas in Kansas City was $3.42 according to KansasCityGasPrices.com.
The price of crude oil constitutes about 50 per cent of the price at the pump and there are many other factors," said Jason Parent, a senior associate with The Kent Group, an Ontario-based organization that provides data, research, analysis and consulting to the downstream petroleum industry.

While crude oil is the base product, crude prices are quoted as futures and they don't really represent what the refineries pay. One of the other big factors is the wholesale price, which represents many variables.

"If you see the price of crude dropping but don't see retail prices dropping accordingly, that is the reason," Price said.

According to the Aug. 9 Pump Price Survey from MJ Ervin & Associates/Kent Marketing, the price for regular self-serve in Moncton was 127.6 cents per litre, or 89.3 cents per litre when taxes are removed.

The highest price for gas in mainland Canada was 137.4 cents per litre in Timmins, Ont., followed by 135.3 cents per litre in Montreal and 130.5 cents per litre in Vancouver.

Driving is expensive in Newfoundland where gas is 133.5 cents per litre in St. John's and 135.9 cents per litre in Gander, but Labrador City is the most expensive at 141.8 cents per litre.

The lowest gas prices were found in Lloydminster, Alberta at 108.7 cents per litre. Drivers in the oil-rich city of Edmonton pay 110.1 cents for a litre of regular self-serve.

The highs and lows work out to a Canadian average price on Aug. 9 of 125.5 (87.2 cents when taxes are removed), which was still two cents cheaper than the New Brunswick regulated price of 127.6. Drivers in Charlottetown were paying 123.9 cents per litre on Aug. 9, while those in Halifax were paying 128.7 cents per litre.

While there is a long-term correlation between crude oil, the wholesale price and the retail price, Parent said the pricing formulas are so complex that consumers would not see a day-to-day correlation.

New Brunswick's gas prices fell yesterday to the maximum retail price of 121.9 cents per litre for regular self-serve unleaded. On Aug. 5, the New York price of crude was $86.88 per barrel.

Looking back over the last month, prices at the pump in New Brunswick have seen a slight rise and then bit of a decline. On July 14 the price was 126.9 cents per litre, and rose to 127.8 cents per litre on July 21. It was at 127.1 cents per litre on July 28 and 126.9 cents per litre on Aug. 4.

The price of crude, meanwhile, was $97.24 a barrel on July 15, rose to $99.87 on July 22 and then to $95.70 on July 29.

That's a long way from $61.04 per barrel on Dec. 30, 2005, or $58.59 in July of 2009. Last July, prices of crude were in the high 70s, and rose to $80 on Aug. 6, 2010.

The last time gas prices in New Brunswick were lower than 100 cents per litre was in September 2010.

At that point, a barrel of oil was trading for around US$78 a barrel.

In 2008, gas prices peaked at a high of 139.3 cents per litre in mid-September, while quickly bottoming out to a yearly-low of 70.1 cents per litre on the last adjustment of the year in December.

That same general pattern also held true in 2009, as gas prices reached their peak (103.7 cents per litre) in the warm June months, while being significantly lower at the start of the year, and slightly lower by the end of 2009.

In 2010, however, prices were at their lowest (96.5 cents per litre) in mid-June and then hit a yearly high of 110.3 cents per litre on the last adjustment in December.

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