Can Rick Perry snatch the New Hampshire primary from Mitt Romney?

Don't mess with Texas," the famous saying goes. And from the looks of it, the warning could well come to summarize the 2012 presidential campaign. Only days after officially jumping in the race for the White House, GOP candidate and Texas Gov. Rick Perry has rattled the usually cool President Obama, prompting him to go on the offensive and acknowledge his opponent, a very unusual move for a sitting President when the election is well over a year away.


Obama lectured Perry during an appearance on CNN after Perry took aim at Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke. The governor said Bernanke would be treated "pretty ugly" in Texas if he were to print more currency. And then, dialing it up even more, he called Bernanke's handling of the recession "almost treasonous."


In a hardly disguised effort to demean the Texas governor, Obama took some jabs of his own: "Mr. Perry just got into the presidential race. I think that everybody who runs for President, it probably takes them a little bit of time before they start realizing that this isn't like running for governor or running for senator or running for Congress, and you've got to be a little more careful about what you say. But I'll cut him some slack. He's only been at it for a few days now."


But although, true enough, it has been only a few days, Perry could be the President's biggest political nightmare.


Perry brings the passion that many, even those on the left, say Obama has lost. He echoes the anger of the electorate and the exasperation with Washington that Americans increasingly espouse. Plus, he has the benefit of running as an outsider at a time when insiders are despised and distrusted. His impressive record of job creation in the Lone Star State offers a sharp and powerful contrast, serving as his most powerful weapon against a President who has failed to revive the sputtering economy and spur employment. While the rest of the country is struggling, Perry has created a climate in Texas that is favorable to business and unfriendly to regulations and high taxes. Accordingly, the state is thriving.


This makes Democrats nervous, and they are lashing out. In fact, Obama allies like Rep. Charles Rangel (D-N.Y.) have already leveled charges against Perry's record of job creation, absurdly claiming that most of the jobs he created "are one step away from slavery" because of their minimum-wage status.


A poll released Wednesday of likely voters in the New Hampshire GOP primary shows Mr. Romney retaining his lead: 36 percent, followed by Perry at 18 percent, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas at 14 percent, and Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota at 10 percent. The poll, taken for NH Journal by the Republican firm Magellan Strategies, is the first out of New Hampshire since Perry entered the race on Aug. 13.


But as expected, New Hampshire is still Romney’s to lose. And it’s too soon, really, to judge how Perry might do there. But as he makes his first campaign swing around the state Wednesday and Thursday, it’s clear he’s getting a serious look from Republican voters.


The big question is whether someone who is so culturally different from a typical New Hampshirite that he might as well be from Outer Mongolia can gain traction in the Granite State.


“Perry has all sorts of potential, some of it good, some bad,” says Fergus Cullen, former chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party who is neutral in the primary race. “I do think it’s possible he could take off and be a very strong candidate, and I also think it’s possible that he could go nowhere.”


Mr. Cullen attended Perry’s appearance Wednesday morning at a business leaders’ breakfast and felt Perry didn’t perform all that well – he seemed tired – an impression shared by other attendees. But he had clearly gotten the memo on how to talk to New Hampshire voters: Don’t use religious language, don’t talk social issues. Perry, a devout evangelical who just hosted a big prayer rally in Houston on Aug. 6, focused on jobs and the economy.


Perry is also helped by the fact that his top political adviser, Dave Carney, is a native of New Hampshire, which gives the governor credibility with some of the state’s political insiders. And certainly Perry can boast big job creation as governor of Texas as a counterweight to Romney’s record as a businessman.


But whether enough New Hampshire Republicans can grow comfortable enough with Perry’s outsize Texas personality and thick drawl (eerily similar to President George W. Bush’s) to see him as the next president – and the best challenger to President Obama – is an open question. Look at the history of competitive New Hampshire Republican primaries, and you won’t find any true Southerners on the list of winners.