Republicans’ big problem in 2012 is Hispanics?

Active critic of mine emailed me recently wondering if my strategy and that of other immigrant rights advocates was to defeat President Obama by blaming him relentlessly for the lack of progress on immigration reform and/or urge Latinos not to vote in 2012. Did I want President Obama to be a one-term president, he asked. Did I think a Republican would do any better on behalf of immigrants?


There is no way to sugar coat it. President Obama has failed miserably in his promise to update our flawed immigration system. But as much as our community's grief pushes me to detest, denounce, and defy this administration's terror-inducing immigration policies, I do not for a minute think that getting rid of President Obama or withholding my vote next November will do my family, the community, or the nation any good whatsoever.


The question is not whether I will vote in 2012. The question is how to make my vote count. How do immigrants and Latinos flex their voting muscle to effectively remind our national elected leaders, whoever they may be, that we cannot be taken for granted, especially when it comes to solving a deeply-emotional and personal issue like immigration reform?


Many of us will remember the highly-publicized and often replayed immigration reform promises then candidate-Obama made to Latinos and immigrants at key constituent gatherings, including NCLR's national conference. There were no embarrassing pauses or caveats, or much blaming of the opposing party for that matter, in his speeches as he pointedly chastised a system that blindly separates mothers from their babies. Latino voters were enthralled by the empathy and compassion of his words and gave him our vote by the millions.


For two years in a row, address after address, President Obama held steadfast in his expressed commitment to change the dangerously broken immigration system. He told small groups and large groups alike, elected officials and celebrities, advocates and community members that he was personally committed and engaged in finding a solution. All we were missing, the president would often say, is one or two courageous Republicans. He rarely, if ever, talked about the non-courageous Democrats in Congress that were committed to block any attempt by the White House to pass any type of immigration reform legislation.


There was something else missing from the president's usual words of encouragement on immigration reform: the Obama administration's deportation machine was moving full speed ahead all the while we held out hope for our dose of change to come. For two years the president offered various explanations as to why immigration reform would not happen. He did not, however, have the courage to explain why he felt compelled to tear apart close to a million families and exponentially expand toxic monsters like the "Secure Communities" program.


Democratic pollsters counter that it will be hard for Republicans to campaign on the economy when Republican hopefuls are calling for deeper cuts in social programs that most Hispanics want to preserve. In addition, immigration plays a big role in Hispanics’ voting decisions, they say.
“Immigration is an emotional issue,” Democratic pollster Sergio Bendixen told me. “It indicates to us which candidate likes us, and which one doesn’t.”
Several Republican Party leaders, including former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and former Secretary of Commerce Carlos Gutierrez, have recently launched a Hispanic Leadership Network to woo Latinos to the Republican Party. Last week, I asked Gutierrez how his party can improve its standing among Latinos with its current anti-immigration, anti-social programs rhetoric.
Gutierrez, who supports former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the Republican front-runner, and considers his candidate to be a “pragmatist,” conceded that Republicans will have a hard time winning with any candidate who Hispanics perceive as hostile to them.
“The Republican nominee will have to be someone who is a moderate,” Gutierrez told me. “We have to embrace immigration: If we are the party of prosperity, we have to be the party of immigration.”
My opinion: Republicans have a big problem with Hispanics. Granted, Obama is facing an economic slowdown that affects Hispanics more than most other Americans, and he has failed to meet his campaign promise to pass a comprehensive immigration reform that could benefit millions of Latinos.
In addition, the Obama administration has deported nearly 1 million undocumented immigrants over the past three years — more than Bush in his eight years in office. But Republicans won’t be able to criticize Obama on any of these counts, because their presidential hopefuls are calling for deeper budget cuts without new taxes on the rich, and come across as supporting the massive deportation of all undocumented immigrants.
Barring a shift to the center that would help Republicans win more Hispanic votes, or a worse-than-expected U.S. economic downturn that would drive Latino voters to stay at home on election day rather than voting for the president, Obama will be reelected in 2012.