Someone born in another state, and with a Harvard background? Surely the voters of Massachusetts would never go for that.
More seriously, if Republicans think they can Coakley-ize Warren, they're going to snow some lazy bloggers but they're not going to snow voters. Coakley was not a uniquely bad politician; she came from a uniquely bad farm system that produced politicians. She was the second consecutive Massaschuetts Democrat who won the high-profile job of Middlesex County DA, was promoted inside the party for the Attorney General nomination, and flopped like a wounded dolphin when she actually had a tough race against an innovative candidate. The other flop was Tom Reilly, the AG who was outplayed by Deval Patrick in the 2006 gubernatorial primary. Reilly was counting on the Democratic party's organization; Patrick, with no base, built his own. The 2010 U.S. Senate special played out along similar lines, because Coakley was counting on the machine to grind out a win, while Scott Brown, with no reliable Republican machine, had to practice entrepreneurial suburban politics. Everyone remembers Coakley's "What am I supposed to do, shake hands in the cold?" gaffe. No one remembers the whole quote.
And while Ms. Warren, 62, has yet to discuss a Senate run with Democratic operatives here, her fans have started raising money on her behalf and making the case that she would captivate voters who have yet to learn her name.
“She’s an enormously affable, accessible person,” said Laurence H. Tribe, a Harvard law colleague. “I don’t think she would come with the baggage that someone from an elite university might sometimes have.”
Others pointed out that Ms. Warren’s father was a maintenance man and that she could use her blue-collar upbringing to thwart attempts to pigeonhole her as a member of the Harvard elite.
Democrats salivate at the thought of unseating Mr. Brown, a popular freshman who shocked them in 2010 by winning the seat that Edward M. Kennedy held for 47 years. But so far, the field of seven declared Democratic candidates lacks a standout; the best known are Alan Khazei, who co-founded a national service program and finished third in a field of four candidates in the Democratic primary in 2009, and Setti Warren, the mayor of suburban Newton, whose campaign is already in debt.
Mr. Brown has already raised nearly $10 million for his re-election race, but many Democrats say Ms. Warren could easily match him in fund-raising by tapping into national networks.
“She has a lot of fans among our membership, and they’re very aware of the fact she’s one of the boldest leaders out there,” said Adam Green of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, a liberal group soliciting donations for a draft fund that would be transferred to Ms. Warren should she run. “If she decides to run, this will be one of the marquee races of 2012, second only to the presidential race.”
So will she? Ms. Warren declined through a spokeswoman to be interviewed, but she said in television appearances last week that she would think about her future only after leaving Washington next month. She will also take a family vacation — to the Legoland theme park in California, she said — and will probably not announce a decision before Labor Day, several friends said.
In the meantime, high-placed Democrats here are waiting for her to call and wondering just how gifted a candidate Ms. Warren, who has never run for office, would be.
“I don’t know her,” said John Walsh, the chairman of the Massachusetts Democratic Party, “but I’ve seen her on TV, and if she’s as good on the stump or at the chicken bake as she is on Rachel Maddow, she will definitely have some support.”
Others said much remained to be seen.
“She has been in a very high-profile, controversial public position and handled herself very well,” said Philip W. Johnston, a former chairman of the Massachusetts Democratic Party. “But running for office presents an entirely different set of problems and challenges. Some people are good at it; some are not.”
For Ms. Warren, one such challenge could be the fact that Massachusetts has a poor track record of electing women. Only four women have ever been elected to the House of Representatives here, and only six to a statewide office.
Some here cringed when Andrea Mitchell asked Ms. Warren on MSNBC last week whether she was “up to speed on the Red Sox” and Ms. Warren suggested that her husband was the one who followed Boston sports.
Shortly afterward, the National Republican Senatorial Committee sent out a news release comparing Ms. Warren to Martha Coakley, the state attorney general who lost the 2010 special Senate election to Mr. Brown. In a much-mocked gaffe, Ms. Coakley suggested just before the election that Curt Schilling, a beloved former Red Sox pitcher, was a Yankee fan.
The release also called Ms. Warren a favorite of “the Washington establishment,” hitting at another potential vulnerability. Democratic leaders here are eager to dispel any notion that they lack confidence in the current field and that national Democrats are foisting a higher-profile candidate on the state.
“People are celebrating the fact that we have so many intriguing and interesting and qualified people to choose from,” Mr. Walsh said. He added that other candidates might still jump in, including Representatives Michael E. Capuano and Stephen F. Lynch.
Several friends of Ms. Warren said that though she might be talking to her inner circle about whether to run — especially her two grown children and her husband, Bruce Mann, a fellow Harvard Law professor — she would probably not reach out to Massachusetts Democrats for weeks.
Meanwhile, Mr. Walsh said he was learning about Ms. Warren by reading one of her books.
“She definitely feels like she’s a fighter for the middle class,” he said. “She’s just got to sit down and think, is electoral politics a place you want to take that fight?
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