Voters go to the polls in Wisconsin's two final recalls

Recall fatigue may be setting in for Wisconsin voters. But when another cluster of them heads to the polling booths Tuesday, their votes not only could have a significant impact on the Wisconsin Senate, but also could provide a glimpse a what might transpire nationwide in 2012.


In Tuesday's recall elections, two Democratic incumbents in the state Senate face Republican challenges. Last week, six Republican state senators faced recalls, with four holding on to their seats. That leaves Republicans with a 17-16 advantage in the state Senate.


While Republicans cannot lose their majority Tuesday – meaning they will retain control of the Senate, Assembly, and governorship – picking up an extra seat could give them valuable legislative breathing room.


If both Democrats prevail, however, the election could offer further evidence that the country's broad political middle is swinging back left after the tea party triumphs of last November. The composition of Wisconsin's electorate almost exactly matches America's, polls suggest, meaning that the state is emerging as a microcosm of the national political mood, which makes it a crucial bellwether in the 2012 national election.


Fundamentally, Wisconsin is a purple state – neither red nor blue – "and that makes it important,” says John McAdams, a political scientist at Marquette University in Milwaukee.


Even with Republicans ruling all three branches of state government no matter the outcome, Tuesday’s election does give Democrats a chance to hold tight to that slim margin, which they can use to strategize with Republican moderates to vote against future conservative legislative efforts.


A one-vote majority in any legislative assembly is pretty tenuous,” says Professor McAdams. Republicans would really be quite better off if they could pick up one of the races on the ballo.


No matter who wins, Republican Governor Scott Walker and his Republican allies will retain control of the legislature, where the battle over public workers' union powers was waged earlier this year with public protests, legislative maneuvering and court challenges.


With seven of the nine recalls over, Republicans have managed to keep control of the state senate -- 17 to 16 if they score no wins on Tuesday -- because Democrats failed to unseat three Republican state Senators in the key round of six GOP senate recalls last week.


Walker fought for the union curbs, which severely restrict the bargaining rights of public workers and also make them pay more for healthcare and pensions, saying they were needed to help Wisconsin close a $3.6 billion budget deficit.


Democrats cried foul, saying public workers had already agreed to steep benefit cuts. They called the effort union-busting, designed to hobble organized labor -- a major source of Democratic Party financing -- ahead of the 2012 elections.


The fight thrust Wisconsin into the national spotlight, igniting massive pro-union protests and political fights that led to the recall efforts against six Republicans who backed the union curbs and three Democrats who opposed them.


One of the races involving an incumbent Democrat was held earlier in the summer.


The nine recall efforts were historic. Until this summer, there had been only 20 state-level recall elections in the 235-year history of the United States.


The money poured into the campaigns has been something for the record books, too.


Mike Buelow, research director for the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign, estimates that candidates and outside groups spent as much as $37 million on the recalls.


That amount is "really astronomical for Wisconsin," he said -- more than double the amount spent on state legislative races last year when 116 seats -- not nine -- were up for grabs.


With the recalls acting as somewhat of a rehearsal for 2012, experts say the spending could be a harbinger of record outlays next year.